By Rachel West, Sean Kelly and Shane McNeil
Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
Penélope Cruz for Nine
Vera Farmiga for Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal for Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick for Up in the Air
Mo’Nique for Precious
Rachel: Mo’Nique should win and will win this award. She’s picked up pretty much every trophy this awards season, each one well-deserved for her role as the abusive mother in Precious. She’s terrifying on screen, and often hard to watch. Look for her to collect the gold.
Will win: Mo’Nique, Precious
Should win: Mo’Nique, Precious
Sean: This is another Oscar that was essentially pre-picked. I have no immediate plans to see Precious, but based on the clips I’ve seen, Mo’Nique is definitely the most deserving.
Will Win: Mo’Nique, Precious
Should Win: Mo’Nique, Precious
Shane: While I’d love to whine about the Julianne Moore, Melanie Laurent and Diane Kruger snubs, Mo’Nique was clearly the standout performance among the group. It doesn’t hurt that the AMPAS loooooves when comedians go very, very dark.
Will Win: Mo’Nique, Precious
Should Win: Mo’Nique, Precious
Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
Matt Damon for Invictus
Woody Harrelson for The Messenger
Christopher Plummer for The Last Station
Stanley Tucci for The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds
Rachel: Like Mo’Nique, Inglourious Basterds’ Christoph Waltz has been claiming nearly every major award. Stanley Tucci may have been the only reason to watch The Lovely Bones and the “Old and Respected” nomination goes to Christopher Plummer, but neither performance has a chance to top Waltz. This should be no contest.
Will win: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Should win: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Sean: Like Heath Ledger last year, this award was picked long before the nominees were announced. Christoph Waltz played one of the most charismatic Nazis ever seen on film and stole every scene he was in. If I would have to pick a second choice, I would have to say Stanley Tucci for his very creepy character in The Lovely Bones.
Will win: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Should win: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Shane: The least suspenseful race of the night. Waltz was just that good. There’s nothing I can say that hasn’t already been said of his genius and I look forward to his speech.
Will Win: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Should Win: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Best Actress in a Leading Role:
Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side
Helen Mirren for The Last Station
Carey Mulligan for An Education
Gabourey Sidibe for Precious
Meryl Streep for Julie & Julia
Rachel: In 1995, I watched Sandra Bullock race around Los Angeles with a floppy disk in an attempt to get her identity back from evil internet terrorist group. Not once while watching The Net did I ever think to myself, “One day that woman is going to win an Oscar!” How wrong I was. This is Bullock’s year to win, not because her role in The Blind Side was spectacular, but because, quite frankly, it is better than the rest of her competition. With sappy, eye-roll worthy, Hallmark-inspired lines, Bullock made the best of what she was given — Southern accent included — which in itself is worthy of an award. If Meryl Streep had a full biopic of Julia Child to herself, then the award would be hers.
Will win: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Should win: Carey Mulligan, An Education
Sean: All the buzz says that this award will be a flip between Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep. Like Bridges, Bullock torpedoed to front-runner status after her Golden Globe win and I’m fairly certain she will win here (even thought I admit that I haven’t even seen a clip from The Blind Side).
Will Win: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Should win: Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Shane: I’m starting to think Mulligan might just walk up the middle and steal it from Bullock (and La Streep), but Bullock just seems to be this year’s coronation candidate which is sad both for Streep’s stellar work and the Academy’s long-term rep. This goes down as another Halle Berry if she wins.
Will Win: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Should Win: Carey Mulligan, An Education
Best Actor in a Leading Role:
Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart
George Clooney for Up in the Air
Colin Firth for A Single Man
Morgan Freeman for Invictus
Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker
Rachel: It’s a long shot, but the most affecting performance on screen in 2009 was Colin Firth in A Single Man. Winner of the BAFTA for Best Actor, Firth is subtly compelling as George, a man who is left to deal with the passing of his longtime lover. Playing against his romantic Bridget Jones’ hero-type of role, Firth is emotional yet restrained in this quiet role.
Will win: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Should win: Colin Firth, A Single Man
Sean: Before Bridges Golden Globes win, I probably would have gone with Colin Firth or George Clooney to win the Oscar. However, as it stands now it is almost a sure thing that Bridges will walk away with the award. Who knows, maybe the academy will decide to reward Morgan Freeman’s great career and give him the award.
Will win: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Should win: Colin Firth, A Single Man
Shane: I won’t argue with giving The Dude his due, but Firth’s performance resonated a bit more for me and has gotten lost in the shuffle behind a lot of bigger names (as has the stellar work of Jeremy Renner). All three are excellent, but if I’m betting, it’s on The Dude.
Will Win: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Should Win: Colin Firth, A Single Man
There’s a little bit of a unintentional error here, since I wrote my Best Supporting Actress prediction to come AFTER the Best Supporting Actor one.