MONDOmagazine

By Shane McNeil

Wake up, Oscar’s on the phone! Nominations morning can either be the most exciting or the most predictable few minutes of the year. Some years things go as charted and sometimes the pundits are proven completely wrong (like the Dreamgirls snub, which I predicted because, well, the movie blew). This year is looking like a case of the former, at least at the top, so after my safe list of picks, I’ll try to point out where things could go off the board.

BEST PICTURE

The Dark Knight

Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Milk
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon

When the Producers’ Guild and Directors’ Guild agree on a shortlist, it’s usually a safe bet to assume that’s the way the worm will turn. However, Into the Wild looked to be a lock last year and was on the outside. Considering nominations are based on which film was most loved and not best liked, I think the weak link, if any, is Frost/Nixon. Many think The Dark Knight is a longshot, but it’s the kind of film people are passionate about and it will break tradition to bring comic books into the Oscar vocabulary. Don’t even bother debating the first three.

Watch Out For: Doubt, The Reader, Wall-E
Longshot: The Wrestler

BEST DIRECTOR

Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
David Fincher (The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button)
Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon)
Chris Nolan (The Dark Knight)
Gus Van Sant (Milk)

The directors often go a bit off the board, even from their guild predictions, so apart from Fincher and Boyle, a snub of anyone here would not be entirely surprising. The DGA/Oscar gap has spurned Opie Howard before, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him shunned again. Gus Van Sant is just maverick enough for people to dislike him.

Watch Out For: Mike Leigh (Happy Go-Lucky), Stephen Daldry (The Reader), Clint Eastwood (Torino /Changeling), Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler)
Longshot: Woody Allen (Vicky Crisitna Barcelona)

The Wrestler

BEST ACTOR

Sean Penn (Milk)
Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)
Brad Pitt (The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button)
Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino)

Penn and Rourke will fight for the win, though Rourke is probably this year’s inevitability.  Frank Langella is maybe the only thing I’d guarantee Frost/Nixon gets recognition for (as it’s liked but not widely loved in my opinion). The rest is a bit of a crapshoot. Pitt has the pretty-boy thing against him, along with Button’s hot-and-cold response, but I think he’s got enough to power to grab a nomination. Eastwood started out of the gate strong, garnering comparisons to John Wayne’s performance in True Grit but he ended up just kinda looking like a racist on-screen.  I’d say two spots are up for grabs here.

Watch Out For: Richard Jenkins (The Visitor), Leonardo Dicaprio (Revolutionary Road), Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire)
Longshots: Colin Farrell (In Bruges), Dustin Hoffman (Last Chance Harvey)

BEST ACTRESS

Meryl Streep (Doubt)
Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky)
Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)
Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
Melissa Leo (Frozen River)

There are four guarantees here and one wide open slot.  I chose Leo because she’s the type of left-field, DIY player that Oscar loves and this would be the place to showcase her.  Angelina Jolie hasn’t landed a nom since winning and I think that says something about the Academy’s feelings towards her, (though I’d be stunned if Changeling gets totally snubbed). They do, however, love Cate Blanchett, so I wouldn’t be stunned to see her carried in on a wave of Button support.

Watch Out For: Cate Blanchett (The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button), Angelina Jolie (Changeling), Kristen Scott Thomas (I’ve Loved You So Long)
Longshot: Emma Thompson (Last Chance Harvey)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)
James Brolin (Milk)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt)
Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder)
Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire)

The dude playing the dude disguised as another dude (Downey) is not only a lock in my mind for a nom, but also the pony to bet on to rain on The Joker’s parade. Inevitability does rear its head in the Oscars and often in this category (Javier Bardem, anyone?) but this Joker for Oscar thing has been around since last year and I think it’ll run out of steam at just the last minute for a real Cinderella story in Downey. The only maybe here, in my mind, is Dev Patel, but since Slumdog is so popular, I think the Academy will find a way to sneak at least one actor in (despite Patel really being a lead).

Watch Out For: James Franco (Milk), Eddie Marsan (Happy Go-Lucky)
Longshot: Tom Cruise (Tropic Thunder)

BEST SUPORTING ACTRESS

Penelope Cruz (Vicky Crisitna Barcelona)
Amy Adams (Doubt)
Kate Winslet (The Reader)
Viola Davis (Doubt)
Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)

This is where I see Doubt making its presence known. It was a favourite for best picture but has since slid behind Batman. Davis seems a favourite, but I like Adams as a nod for a good few years of work. A Benjamin Button groundswell puts Taraji P. Henson into play, but that’s about the only change I’d put money on.

Watch Out For: Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button)
Longshot: Freida Pinto (Slumdog Millionaire)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Slumdog Millionaire
Frost/Nixon
Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt

Apart from The Reader, I really see no competition for any of these, unless the Academy gets their knickers in a twist over a comic book adaptation.

Watch Out For: The Reader, Revolutionary Road
Longshot: Iron Man

Wall-E

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Milk
The Wrestler
Wall-E
Happy-Go-Lucky
Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Sometimes it’s not what, but who, and the names of this list speak for themselves. I choose Wall-E because there’s been lots of love here for Pixar before. It would be foolish to completely count out the Coen brothers, but I think the Academy feels it loved them enough last year to not reward Burn After Reading, though it is still an outside possibility.

Watch Out For: Burn After Reading, In Bruges, Rachel Getting Married, The Visitor
Longshot: Waltz With Bashir